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Saturday, January 15, 2011

In Tunisia, Clashes Continue as Power Shifts a Second Time



Smoked poured out of a supermarket near Tunis. Power changed hands for the second time in 24 hours on Saturday morning.





NEW YORK TIMES

TUNIS — Tanks, police officers and gangs of newly deputized young men wielding guns held the deserted streets of Tunis Saturday night after a day of sporadic rioting and gunfire. Power changed hands for the second time in 24 hours, and the swift turnabout raised new questions about what kind of government might emerge from the chaos engulfing Tunisia.

The interim government named Friday had hoped that the toppling of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who fled the country, would satisfy protesters, but continued unrest Saturday made clear that they were determined to chase his allies from power as well.

Bursts of gunfire rang out through the capital all day Saturday, and a patient discharged from a major hospital here reported that the emergency room was packed with people suffering gunshot wounds.

After a hail of machine-gun fire in the late afternoon in downtown Tunis, snipers were visible on the rooftop of the Interior Ministry, aiming down at the Boulevard Bourguiba. Human rights groups said that they had confirmed dozens of deaths at the hands of security forces even before the biggest street battle began Friday, and on Saturday residents huddled in their homes for fear of the police.

The tumbling political succession started Friday when Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi announced on state television that the president was gone and that he was taking over. Then, on Saturday morning, Mr. Ghannouchi, an ally of Mr. Ben Ali, abruptly announced that he was surrendering the reins of government to the speaker of Parliament, complying with succession rules spelled out in the Tunisian Constitution. Now the speaker, Fouad Mebazaa, is expected to hold elections to form a new government within 60 days.

The shake-up underscored the power vacuum left here after the end of Mr. Ben Ali’s 23 years of authoritarian rule — a transition of dizzying speed that Tunisians view with both hope and fear.

With Tunisia’s relatively large middle class, high level of education and secular culture, some here argue that their country is poised to become the first true Arab democracy. And commentators around the Middle East pondered the potential regional implications of the success of Tunisia’s protests; Mr. Ben Ali’s fall marked the first time that street demonstrations had overcome an Arab autocrat. “Will Tunisia be the first domino to fall?” asked a headline on the Web site of the news channel Al Jazeera.

But others at home and abroad worried that Tunisia could slide into chaos, laying the groundwork for a new strongman to emerge. Mr. Ben Ali was viewed in the West as a reliable ally in the fight against the Islamic extremism flourishing in other parts of North Africa, and in Washington, national security experts said extremist groups like Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb could capitalize on the disorder to find a new foothold.

For now, though, the political field remains conspicuously empty. Mr. Ben Ali’s pervasive network of secret police had succeeded in effectively eliminating or co-opting any truly viable opposition or political institution. The former president also long ago wiped away the Islamist groups that form the main grass-roots opposition in most Arab countries.

“There are very few players to keep track of,” said Michael Koplow, an expert on Tunisia who has written about the uprising for Foreign Policy magazine. “If there were new free elections, it is unclear whether there is anyone qualified to run who the people would accept. It is wide open.”

There is also no apparent leader or spokesman for the four-week-old protest against joblessness and government corruption that forced Mr. Ben Ali from power. The protests erupted spontaneously after the Dec. 17 suicide by self-immolation of a college-educated street vendor in the Western city of Sidi Bouzid frustrated by the lack of opportunity (the police had confiscated his wares because he did not have a permit). They spread through online social networks like Facebook and Twitter. And they accelerated as demonstrators shared homemade digital videos of each confrontation with the police.

“There are no leaders, that is the good thing,” one protester declared Friday as thousands crowded around the Interior Ministry just before the police imposed martial law and Mr. Ben Ali left the country.

Protesters immediately turned against the unconstitutional ascension of Mr. Ghannouchi, arguing that he was a crony of Mr. Ben Ali who came from the same hometown of Sousse. It remains unclear if critics will be satisfied with the switch in power to Mr. Mebazaa, who has presided over a Parliament dominated exclusively by Mr. Ben Ali’s ruling party and like almost every other Tunisian elected official, owes his career to the former president.

There were reports in Arabic news outlets this weekend that it was the Tunisian military that finally triggered the unwinding of Mr. Ben Ali’s government. As the demonstrations escalated on Thursday afternoon, the country’s top military official, Gen. Rachid Ammar, is said to have refused to shoot protesters.

That afternoon, the military began pulling its tanks and personnel out of downtown Tunis, leaving the police and other security forces loyal to the ruling party to take their place as President Ben Ali delivered his final speech pleading, in effect, for another chance. The tanks returned after Mr. Ben Ali left the country.

On Saturday afternoon, there were some signs that General Ammar himself may now have an eye on politics. On Facebook, a staging ground of the street revolt, almost 1,700 people had clicked that they “like” a Web page named “General Rachid Ammar President” and emblazoned with his official photographs.

Still, the Tunisian military is relatively small compared with the armies of most countries in the region and is far less pervasive here than internal security forces, and so far neither General Ammar nor any other military figure has publicly stepped forward to try to lead the country.

Meanwhile, Tunisians abroad and exiled opposition leaders reveled in the chance for a change. Several thousand Tunisians demonstrated in Paris on Saturday at the Place de la République calling for real democracy and celebrating Mr. Ben Ali’s downfall.

Exiled opposition leaders, many of whom have lived abroad for decades in France or Britain, prepared to return in the hope of rekindling their movements. Perhaps foremost among them was Rachid al-Ghannouchi, a progressive Islamic leader who founded the Hizb al-Nahdah, or Renaissance Party. He was imprisoned twice in the 1980s and granted asylum in Britain in 1993.

“The dictatorship has fallen,” Mr. Ghannouchi told Reuters. “There is nothing to stop me returning to my country after 22 years of exile.”

In Egypt, critics of President Hosni Mubarak rushed to embrace the Tunisian example, noting that their country shared the combination of an autocratic ruler, rampant corruption and a large population of frustrated youth. Egyptians traded phone messages like “Mubarak, oh, Mubarak, your plane is waiting for you!” and posted images of the Tunisian flag to their Facebook pages. A major opposition group, led by Mohamed El Baradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, merged the Egyptian and Tunisian flags into one on its Web site.

One group of young Egyptians set up a Facebook page calling on their fellow citizens to make January 25 “The day of revolution against torture, poverty, corruption and unemployment.”

“If you care about Egypt, if you want your rights, join us and participate and enough silence,” the page said.

Still, many commentators around the Arab world wondered if it might be too soon to celebrate, given the continuing violence in Tunisia and the lack of an obvious leader. “We don’t know if the Tunisia of yesterday has opened up, or is about to plunge into a deep sea of the unknown and be added to the series of Arab disasters that don’t end,” Tarek al-Hamid wrote in Asharq al-Awsat, a paper with a Saudi owner. “No one will cry over Ben Ali, but the prayer is for Tunisia not to fall into a quagmire of crises with a bleak future.”

Saudi Arabia said Saturday that it had welcomed Mr. Ben Ali and his family. France, the former colonial power in Tunisia, made it clear that it did not want to risk inflaming its large Tunisian immigrant population by accepting the former president. And on Saturday, the French government said that members of Mr. Ben Ali’s family who had taken refuge at a hotel at Disneyland Paris were not welcome either.

“Ben Ali’s family members on French soil have no reason to stay,” a government spokesman said. “They are going to leave it.” French media said the family members were later seen leaving the hotel.

Meanwhile, reports of unrest continued Saturday in Tunisia, with the Arab news media reporting that hundreds of prisoners were freed after a jailhouse riot in a resort town and that more than 40 were killed in a fire at another prison set by an inmate hoping to escape amid the country’s chaos.

But the Tunisian airport reopened at least partially Saturday, and some in Tunis said things were looking up. Huddled in the doorway of a darkened apartment building downtown Saturday, a man in his late 20s was smoking cigarettes and watching security forces patrol the square outside. He would give only his first name, Faisal, and he said that he had been unemployed for the seven years since he graduated from college, in part because he could not afford the bribes necessary to secure a job.

He had nothing good to say about Mr. Ben Ali, but when asked about what would come out of the chaos, he shrugged and smiled.

“Look,” he said, “everything is going to be O.K.”

Nigeria begins registering millions for April polls

OTUOKE, Nigeria (Reuters) – Nigeria began the mammoth task of registering an estimated 70 million voters on Saturday, a process which will be key to ensuring nationwide elections in April are more credible than in the past.

An electoral roll riddled with fictitious names and omitting legitimate voters, combined with ballot-stuffing and intimidation, so badly marred previous votes in Africa's most populous nation that observers refused to sign off on them.

President Goodluck Jonathan, who won the ruling party nomination on Thursday, has said organizing clean presidential, parliamentary and state governorship elections in three months' time is a top priority. An accurate electoral roll is key.

Jonathan named Attahiru Jega, a respected academic, to head the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) last June as part of efforts to clean up the system.

Jega said from the outset establishing a new voter list so quickly in a country of 140 million would be challenging.

"Nigerians need to understand what we have started today is such a massive exercise the like of which I don't recall in terms of scale and complexity," Jega told reporters in Jonathan's home village, shortly after the president registered.

"We're working in 120,000 polling stations nationwide. We have to deploy men and materials to these places and we have to ensure the process commences on time."

Crowds of villagers and Jonathan's supporters flocked to his village of Otuoke to see him and his wife Patience register under a makeshift canopy outside their country home.

Schools have been closed until the end of the month and are to be used as registration centers during the two-week exercise.

INEC last year bought 120,000 electronic voter registration kits -- including laptop computers, finger print scanners, cameras and printers -- using part of a controversial 88 billion naira ($585 million) budget.

Jega said around 98,000 of the kits had been deployed and acknowledged there had been logistical problems, including with some of the scanners. He said he hoped the remainder would be deployed in the next 24 hours.

"I want to ask Nigerians to be patient with us ... We are only 5 hours into the first day of a 15-day exercise," he said.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

International Olympic Committee suspends Ghana

Accra, Jan. 13, GNA - The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has suspended Ghana from its outfit after a long standing feud at the corridors of the Ghana Olympic Committee (GOC). The decision follows an Executive Board meeting of the IOC held on Thursday, January 13, at the Lausanne, Switzerland. Information gathered by GNA Sports reveals that the IOC was compelled to suspend Ghana after months of fruitless negotiations aimed at seeking solution to the feud at the GOC. According to the information, the government of Ghana also failed to follow agreed steps outlined by the IOC to prevent any form of political interference in the affairs of the GOC. With this development, Ghana will be barred from participating in qualifiers towards the 2011 All Africa Games and 2012 All Africa Games as well as other international Olympic events. The IOC is yet to communicate to officials of the GOC. Benson T. Baba, former President of the GOC told the GNA Sports that he heard of the ban from the media, but is yet to receive any formal letter from the IOC to that effect. He however said he will not be surprised if such an action is taken against Ghana, because, the government failed to follow the road map laid by the IOC when the feud started. The former GOC President said the latest development could have been avoided if the necessary steps were taken to pass the Sports Bill and other requirements outlined by the IOC. Asked whether there is a way out of the ban, he said "that will be a tall order because we have not been faithful to our words. "Issues of credibility will also be at play as we failed to adhere to the directives of the IOC after several promises". He stated. Baba added that Ghana has also not been in good relationship with the IOC due to the pronouncements of the outgoing Minister of Youth and Sports, Ms Akua Sena Dansua as well as her letter to other Commonwealth States seeking their support to boycott IOC events. Ghana becomes the second country to be suspended by the IOC in recent times, after Kuwait was banned last year for political interference. GNA

Ivory Coast Tensions Escalate; Senegal Backs Invasion

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Senegal renewed calls for military intervention to end the post-election stalemate in Ivory Coast, where clashes in the commercial capital, Abidjan, marked escalating tensions in the world’s top cocoa grower.

Senegal’s President Abdoulaye Wade is lobbying leaders in the Economic Community of West African States to stand by a Dec. 24 pledge to use military force to remove incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo from power if he refuses to step down in favor of Alassane Ouattara, said Papa Dieng, an adviser to Wade. The United Nations recognizes Ouattara as winner of the presidential election in November.

“Gbagbo has to leave by any means necessary, even military means,” Dieng said yesterday in an interview in Senegal’s capital, Dakar. “If he stays there, African leaders will feel there’s no need to ever concede an election.”

One person was killed in Abobo, a suburb of Abidjan, said Yves Doumbia, a spokesman for the town’s mayor said today. The streets were empty as residents stayed indoors to avoid the fighting. People “are very scared,” said resident Ladji Soumahoro by phone today. “Early this morning, security forces prevented people from leaving the area to go to work.” Gunfire was also heard in the suburb of Williamsville, where one of the city’s main police barracks are located.

Cocody, Riviera Explosions

A police truck was burned in Abobo, Doumbia said by phone today, while Abidjan’s affluent Cocody and Riviera suburbs were rocked with explosions at 2 a.m. today, witnesses including resident Francois Durand said.

“I heard at least 10 explosions, either from grenade launchers or some kind of cannon, and sustained gunfire from Kalashnikovs,” Durand said. Ouattara is currently blockaded in a hotel in Riviera by the army, while the majority of Abobo’s inhabitants are his supporters.

Ouattara won 59 percent of votes in Abobo, according to the electoral commission, which named him the overall winner. Gbagbo, 65, refuses to cede power, citing a ruling by the Constitutional Council that annulled votes in parts of Ivory Coast’s north on fraud allegations and gave him victory. Gbagbo has retained the loyalty of the army, while Ouattara is backed by the African Union, the U.S. and former colonial ruler France.

Search for Weapons

At least four people were killed yesterday after security forces loyal to Gbagbo conducted a house-to-house search for weapons in Abobo, according to Mustapha Ouattara, a spokesman for the pro-Ouattara RHDP coalition. A doctor at the military hospital in the city said nine members of the security forces were shot and injured, state-owned RTI television reported.

A United Nations patrol was halted by a roadblock as it attempted to enter Abobo, Kenneth Blackman, deputy spokesman for the UN mission in Ivory Coast, said yesterday. Peacekeepers were pelted with stones by civilians whose political affiliation wasn’t clear, Blackman said. The UN peacekeepers are protecting Ouattara headquarters in Abidjan.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has asked the security council to agree to send 2,000 soldiers and three attack helicopters to the West African nation to deter the threat of violence, as “the precarious situation could quickly degenerate into widespread conflict”.

The UN’s 9,100 peacekeepers and civilian police are “operating in an openly hostile security environment with direct threats from regular and irregular forces” loyal to Gbagbo, Ban said in a Jan. 7 letter to Ambassador Ivan Barbalic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, president of the UN Security Council this month. The body is due to discuss the situation in Ivory Coast on Jan. 14.

Deaths Reported

An estimated 210 people have been killed in post-election violence, the UN said last week before the Abobo clashes. As many as 25,000 people have fled from the west of the country into neighboring Liberia, and are arriving at a rate of about 600 each day, the UN’s refugee agency said in a statement yesterday.

Kenya’s Prime Minister Raila Odinga is due to return to Ivory Coast this week in his second attempt to find a resolution to the conflict. He follows former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who made an unannounced visit to the country Jan. 8.

John Atta Mills, the president of neighboring Ghana said on Jan. 7 it will not contribute troops to an Ecowas intervention, saying he doubted it would “bring peace.”

Missed Payment

Amid the political crisis, Ivory Coast missed a $29 million interest payment on its $2.3 billion of Eurobonds on Dec. 31. It has a 30-day period of grace to make the payment.

The government is “fully committed” to meeting payment obligations to avoid defaulting on the bonds, said Annick Kone, a spokeswoman for the finance ministry, in an interview today. Finance and Economy Minister Desire Dallo sent a letter to bondholders dated Jan. 10, saying the country would honor the obligation within the grace period.

The statement caused the Eurobonds to jump the most in intraday trading yesterday since being issued in April, gaining as much as 11 percent. They traded 3.5 percent lower at 39.375 cents on the dollar at 2:21 p.m. in Abidjan today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield on the bond, due December 2032, increased to 16.220 percent.

Cocoa prices have risen 7.4 percent since the election and climbed for a fourth straight day today, adding $16, or 0.6 percent, to $2,950 per metric ton at 2:22 p.m. in London trading.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Iceland Angered Over U.S. Subpoena of Lawmaker's Records

Somewhat lost in the media revelation that WikiLeaks Founder Julian Assange had his Twitter account details subpoenaed is the fact that also named in the legal documents was an Icelandic lawmaker. Now, it would appear, the American ambassador to that country has been called to Reykjavik and clearly has some explaining to do. Iceland is, essentially, what the U.S. would be if our country did more than pay lip service to the "freedom" that our forefathers fought so hard for and, instead, actually tried to promote a free society.

So, now that the U.S. Justice Department has obtained a court order to look into Twitter records for Birgitta Jonsdottir, there is a bit of discomfort between the two countries. Jonsdottir is an Icelandic parliamentarian who is on the nation’s Foreign Affairs Committee. She is also a former WikiLeaks collaborator and is known for working to initiate and further free speech directives. Noted Iceland’s Interior Minister Ogmundur Jonasson, "[It’s] very serious that a foreign state, the United States, demands such personal information of an Icelandic person, an elected official." Why, yes, Ogmundur, it is. It is a very serious matter indeed, as it appears that the U.S. government is taking this witch hunt international.

Added Janasson, "This is even more serious when put [in] perspective and concerns freedom of speech and people’s freedom in general." Also well put, Mr. Janasson. Side note: You’re doing such a fine job of pointing out the hypocrisy of the "free nation" that I will be able to abstain from doing so herein. Where the disagreement ends is anyone’s guess, but what remains clear is that messing with the U.S. government – whether your activities are legal or not – will get you in some serious trouble

U.S. Court Demands WikiLeaks Twitter Account Information

Investigators in the U.S. have asked a judge to help them get at the details in WikiLeaks’ Twitter account as part of a criminal case that the Obama administration is determined to build. Julian Assange, the young leader behind the organization, noted that he expected other U.S. companies, including Facebook and Google, to have similar demands made of them. The U.S. Districut Court for the Eastern District of Virginia issue a subpoena that ordered Twitter to release private messages, billing information, phone numbers and a variety of other information associated with the account that is maintained by Assange and others in his organization.

In addition, Pfc. Bradly Manning, the U.S. Army intelligence analyst who is suspected of working with Assange by supplying classified information, has also be targeted by the subpoena. Assange called the legal maneuvering harassment, saying, "If the Iranian government was to attempt to coercively obtain this information from journalists and activists of foreign nations, human rights groups around the world would speak out."

Twitter did not comment on the subpoena, instead reiterating its policy of attempting to notify account holders if their information has been requested by the government. Mark Stephens, lawyer for Assange, noted that the move was an attempt to "shake the electronic tree in the hope some kind of criminal charge drops out of the bottom of it." Assange is currently in Britain, where he is out on bail and fighting extradition to Sweden over sex crime allegations that appear to be closely tied to the U.S. government’s efforts to find or manufacture criminal activities and attribute them to Assange.

Republic of Ghana Orders 104 Custom Fire Trucks from Pierce

OSHKOSH, Wis.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Oshkosh Corporation announced today that its subsidiary, Pierce Manufacturing, has received an order for 104 custom fire trucks from U.S. exporter Project Development International (PDI) for Ghana’s Ministry of Interior Service and the Ghana National Fire Service. The order includes a combination of 90 pumper tanker units, 10 water tender vehicles and four aerial ladder vehicles. Shipment of the vehicles will be completed by early 2012. This order is valued at more than $31 million.



“We are excited to have been selected by Project Development International and the Republic of Ghana for an order of this magnitude. This is a major accomplishment and a significant step for the Pierce brand to expand globally,” said Charlie Szews, Oshkosh Corporation president and chief executive officer. “Pierce and our other Oshkosh companies earned this award based on the quality of our vehicles, technology, and aftermarket support, and we look forward to serving the Republic of Ghana. This is a comprehensive effort by our international team across the entire Oshkosh Corporation.”



The Pierce vehicles will replace existing units and will help the Ghana National Fire Service in its planned expansion from 136 to 202 fire stations across the country.



In addition to Pierce fire apparatus, the order includes the following additional Oshkosh Corporation products: 13 Jerr-Dan HDL 500 heavy-duty wrecker vehicles and four IMT service trucks.



Pierce dealer, Fire Raiders, Inc., of South Africa will open a facility in the Republic of Ghana to provide local service and support.



About Pierce Manufacturing



Pierce Manufacturing Inc., an Oshkosh Corporation [NYSE: OSK] company, is the leading North American manufacturer of custom fire apparatus. Products include custom and commercial pumpers, aerials, rescue trucks, wildland trucks, minipumpers, elliptical tankers, and homeland security apparatus. In addition, Pierce designs its own foam systems and was the first company to introduce frontal airbags and the Side Roll Protection system to fire apparatus. To learn more about Pierce, visit www.piercemfg.com.



About Oshkosh Corporation



Oshkosh Corporation is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of a broad range of specialty access equipment, commercial, fire & emergency and military vehicles and vehicle bodies. Oshkosh Corporation manufactures, distributes and services products under the brands of Oshkosh®, JLG®, Pierce®, McNeilus®, Medtec®, Jerr-Dan®, Oshkosh Specialty Vehicles, Frontline™, SMIT™, CON-E-CO®, London® and IMT®. Oshkosh products are valued worldwide in businesses where high quality, superior performance, rugged reliability and long-term value are paramount. For more information, visit www.oshkoshcorporation.com.



®, ™ All brand names referred to in this news release are trademarks of Oshkosh Corporation or its subsidiary companies.



Forward-Looking Statements



This press release contains statements that the Company believes to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding the Company’s future financial position, business strategy, targets, projected sales, costs, earnings, capital expenditures, debt levels and cash flows, and plans and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. When used in this press release, words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “should,” “project” or “plan” or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, some of which are beyond the Company’s control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These factors include the impact on revenues and margins of the projected decrease in M-ATV production rates; the cyclical nature of the Company’s access equipment, commercial and fire & emergency markets, especially during periods of global economic weakness and tight credit markets; the Company’s ability to produce vehicles under the FMTV contract at targeted margins; the duration of the ongoing global economic weakness, which could lead to additional impairment charges related to many of the Company’s intangible assets and/or a slower recovery in the Company’s cyclical businesses than equity market expectations; the expected level and timing of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) procurement of products and services and funding thereof; risks related to reductions in government expenditures in light of U.S. defense budget pressures and an uncertain DoD tactical wheeled vehicle strategy; the potential for the U.S. government to competitively bid the Company’s Army and Marine Corps contracts; the consequences of financial leverage associated with the JLG acquisition, which could limit the Company’s ability to pursue various opportunities; the potential for commodity and other raw material costs to rise sharply, particularly in a future economic recovery; risks related to the collectability of receivables, particularly for those businesses with exposure to construction markets; the cost of any warranty campaigns related to the Company’s products; risks related to costs and charges as a result of facilities consolidation and alignment; risks related to production delays arising from supplier quality or production issues; risks associated with international operations and sales, including foreign currency fluctuations and compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act; risks related to work stoppages and other labor matters; the potential for disruptions or cost overruns in the Company’s global enterprise system implementation; the potential for increased costs relating to compliance with changes in laws and regulations; and risks related to disruptions in the Company’s distribution networks. Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release. The Company assumes no obligation, and disclaims any obligation, to update information contained in this press release. Investors should be aware that the Company may not update such information until the Company’s next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

Contact:
Oshkosh CorporationFinancial:Patrick Davidson, 920.966.5939Vice President of Investor RelationsorMedia:John Daggett, 920.233.9247Vice President of Communications

Ghana Currency Unchanged as Investors Match Demand for Dollars

Ghana’s currency, the cedi, was unchanged as demand for dollars by importers was matched by investors bringing greenback into the country to buy bonds, according to Standard Bank Group Ltd.

The cedi traded at 1.4820 at 1.40 p.m. in the capital, Accra, unchanged from earlier in the day, said Chris Nettey, a trader with the bank’s Ghanaian unit.

“There were inflows of dollars offshore from those buying bonds on the secondary market but this was matched by demand by people who needed dollars to import goods and services,” Nettey said by phone today

Suicide Bomber Strikes Bus in Afghan Capital

KABUL, Afghanistan — A suicide bomber apparently targeting Afghan intelligence officers killed two people and wounded 36 on Wednesday in a crowded Kabul neighborhood near the Parliament’s offices.

The attack took place at about 8 a.m. when the bomber drove a motorcycle alongside a bus carrying employees of the National Directorate of Security and detonated a powerful explosion. A security directorate officer was among the dead, officials said, and at least six other agency personnel were wounded.

Mohammad Zahir, director of the Criminal Investigations Department of Kabul Province, said the death toll could rise because some of the wounded were in critical condition.

Another employee of the agency was killed on Wednesday in a separate bombing in the eastern province of Kunar. The Taliban claimed credit for both attacks.

The Kabul blast went off on a busy street lined with grocers and small shops, just a few feet from a Ministry of Health psychiatric hospital. At least six patients were among the wounded, though none seriously, as shattered glass and shrapnel blew through hospital offices and patient rooms.

Once a regular occurrence in the capital, bombings diminished sharply in 2010 but appear to be picking up. Last week, a bomb hidden in a rice sack in downtown Kabul killed a policeman and wounded two civilians.

And in December, two militants wearing suicide vests and armed with machine guns and grenades attacked a bus carrying Afghan National Army officers, killing five and wounding nine. The December blast was the first major attack in the capital since May, when a suicide car bomb struck a NATO convoy, killing 18 people, including five American service members.

In Kunar, meanwhile, a Taliban spokesman said militants killed the security agency’s deputy chief for the province using a remote controlled magnetic bomb that was placed under his car. Lutfullah Mashal, a spokesman for the security directorate, confirmed the death.

Fears Growing of Mugabe’s Iron Grip Over Zimbabwe


HARARE, Zimbabwe — The warning signs are proliferating. Journalists have been harassed and jailed. Threats of violence are swirling in the countryside. The president’s supposed partner in the government has been virulently attacked in the state-controlled media as a quisling for the West. And the president himself has likened his party to a fast-moving train that will crush anything in its way After nearly two years of tenuous stability under a power-sharing government, fears are mounting here that President Robert Mugabe, the autocrat who presided over a bloody, discredited election in 2008, is planning to seize untrammeled control of Zimbabwe during the elections he wants next year.

“Everything seems to point to a violent election,” said Eldred Masunungure, a political scientist and pollster.

Having ruled alone for 28 of the last 30 years, Mr. Mugabe, 86, has made no secret of his distaste for sharing power with his rival, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, since regional leaders pressured them to govern together 22 months ago.

In recent months, Mr. Mugabe has been cranking up his party’s election-time machinery of control and repression. He appointed all the provincial governors, who help him dispense patronage and punishment, rather than sharing the picks as promised with Mr. Tsvangirai. And traditional chiefs, longtime recipients of largess from his party, ZANU-PF, have endorsed Mr. Mugabe as president for life.

Political workers and civic activists who lived through the 2008 campaign of intimidation and repression — in which many foot soldiers in Mr. Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change were tortured or murdered — say ZANU-PF will not need to be so violent this time around. Threats may be enough.

In Mashonaland West, Mr. Mugabe’s home province, people said they were already being warned by local traditional leaders loyal to Mr. Mugabe that the next election would be more terrifying than the last one, when their relatives were abducted and attacked after Mr. Tsvangirai won some constituencies.

“They say, ‘We were only playing with you last time,’ ” said one 53-year-old woman, too frightened to be quoted by name, repeating a warning others in the countryside have heard. “ ‘This time we will go door to door beating and killing people if you don’t vote for ZANU-PF.’ ”

But even as many voice a growing conviction that Mr. Mugabe is plotting to oust his rival and reclaim sole power, he has retained his ability to keep everyone guessing. His political opponents and Western diplomats wonder if Mr. Mugabe is bluffing about a push for quick elections, perhaps to force the factions in his own party to declare their allegiance to him and extinguish the internal jockeying to succeed him.

Further complicating the picture, Mr. Mugabe struck a statesmanlike pose on Monday at a news conference where he graciously shared the stage with Mr. Tsvangirai. The next day, the state-controlled newspaper quoted him as boasting that he, Mr. Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara had brought peace to the country after the 2008 elections. But he also said that new elections would be held after the process of crafting a new constitution was completed, and that the power-sharing government should not be extended beyond August.

The contest between Mr. Mugabe, a university-educated Machiavellian, and Mr. Tsvangirai, 58, a former labor leader who never went to college and is often described as a well intentioned but bumbling tactician, lies at the heart of Zimbabwe’s tumultuous political life.

Not long after Mr. Tsvangirai quit the June 2008 runoff in hopes of halting the beating and torture of thousands of his party workers and supporters, the two men suddenly found themselves alone in the same room. Thabo Mbeki, then South Africa’s president and the mediator in the Zimbabwe crisis, vanished during a lunchtime.

In his resonant, cultivated voice, Mr. Mugabe invited Mr. Tsvangirai to join him for a traditional meal of sadza, greens and stew, prepared by Mr. Mugabe’s personal chef, but Mr. Tsvangirai, who had been viciously beaten by Mr. Mugabe’s police force the year before, refused to eat, aides to both men say.

“I can assure you,” Mr. Mugabe said, according to his press secretary, George Charamba, “I’m not about to poison you.”

In 2009, under excruciating pressure from regional leaders, Mr. Tsvangirai agreed to a deal that some in his own party saw as a poisoned chalice. It made him prime minister, but allowed Mr. Mugabe to retain the dominant powers of the state.

African Unity Faces a Test in Ivory Coast

The New York Times

On a continent where coups and stolen elections are far from uncommon, one thing makes the standoff over Ivory Coast exceptional: all the major powers in Africa and overseas agree that Laurent Gbagbo, the strongman leader, must go In the month since Mr. Gbagbo lost a long-delayed presidential election, the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, the African Union and the West African regional grouping known as Ecowas — in a rare example of African and international solidarity — have all declared that he must step down, slapping a near daily array of sanctions on his government until he does so. West African nations have even threatened to use military force to oust him if he refuses to leave.

But Mr. Gbagbo has been adamant, rebuffing a delegation of African leaders who urged him to give up power this week. That resistance has quickly turned Ivory Coast into a global test case of how — and maybe whether — the international community can impose its will on leaders who maintain solid support within their own militaries and refuse to recognize the elections they lose.

Given how many authoritarian leaders have been tolerated in Africa and elsewhere, the first hurdle in that test — achieving a broad international consensus — has been handily cleared. But Mr. Gbagbo’s persistent refusal to budge has effectively thrown the onus back on the foreign powers once again, forcing the issue of how far they will go to remove him.

“The question now is what will happen next?” said Elkanah Odembo, Kenya’s ambassador to the United States. “What will we do next?” Whatever the strategy, he added, “it needs to happen fast” before more “lives are lost.”

On Wednesday, as the leaders of Ecowas, or the Economic Community of West African States, agreed to further negotiations with Mr. Gbagbo, their defense chiefs were meeting in Nigeria to discuss possible troop deployments, according to a Western diplomat there. Analysts argue that the group’s military capacities are limited and hampered by, among other things, the Gbagbo government’s veiled threats to retaliate against citizens of countries that intervene against Ivory Coast, where there is a large immigrant population.

To back down now would entail a significant loss of credibility for the international institutions and governments pressing Mr. Gbagbo, analysts contend. But the possibility of force has seemed equally unappealing to some African diplomats, particularly because Ivory Coast has already endured a civil war and there is little appetite for fueling another one.

When disputed elections spilled into violence in Kenya and Zimbabwe in recent years, many nations embraced political compromises that joined rivals into tense and sometimes unwieldy power-sharing agreements.

In this case, many African leaders themselves have said power sharing is off the table, rejecting the notion that Mr. Gbagbo should have a significant role in the government. At least five more elections are in the offing in the coming year in West Africa alone, and few want to enshrine a solution that allows recalcitrant leaders to hold onto power beyond their legitimate terms.

“There’s a strong sense here that if they let another wishy-washy power-sharing arrangement emerge in Côte d’Ivoire, it will create a very bad precedent,” said the Western diplomat in Abuja, Nigeria, where Ecowas is based, who was not authorized to discuss the matter. “The stakes here are unusually high. Either Gbagbo loses everything, or it will be a tremendous loss of face for Ecowas.”

It is unclear whether Mr. Gbagbo can play for time through negotiations and somehow split the coalition of nations urging him to leave, or whether the weight of sanctions and threat of military force will compel him to surrender.

So far, there is no sign of the latter. Just the opposite, Mr. Gbagbo has deployed his security forces in opposition neighborhoods, beating and killing dozens in nighttime raids, according to the United Nations.

He has also sent around his minister of youth, Charles Blé Goudé, known as the “General of the Streets,” to whip up popular fervor for an assault on the headquarters of his main rival, Alassane Ouattara, who has been declared the winner of the elections by the scores of countries of the United Nations General Assembly. On Wednesday, Mr. Blé Goudé urged a cheering crowd to “liberate” the hotel where Mr. Ouattara is holed up, protected by peacekeepers.

Mr. Gbagbo proclaimed last week on state television that the “international community has declared war” on Ivory Coast, and that he was merely upholding the country’s Constitution against intruders, including the United Nations. On Tuesday a United Nations convoy was attacked by machete-wielding partisans in a pro-Gbagbo neighborhood, and a Bangladeshi soldier was injured.

As long as Mr. Gbagbo commands the loyalty of the army, he will be difficult to dislodge, analysts say. A potential blow to his hold on power came last week when African leaders blocked his access to money at the regional West African bank, possibly limiting his ability to pay his soldiers. But the impact of even that is uncertain, since the move did not put all state funds in Ivory Coast — the world’s biggest cocoa exporter — beyond the reach of Mr. Gbagbo’s entourage.

“They think they’re Saudi Arabia, but they’re not; they have an obsession with autarky,” said Rinaldo Depagne, an International Crisis Group analyst who has studied Ivory Coast closely, describing the Gbagbo government’s belief in economic self-sufficiency.

“They say, ‘We’re rich.’ They are ultranationalists.”

Meanwhile, the principal pressure point on Mr. Gbagbo, Ecowas, is marching in new and uncertain territory. Although it has deployed military force in the past — in conflicts in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea-Bissau — its previous interventions have been “geared towards ending civil wars,” not removing entrenched leaders, wrote Gilles Yabi, the new director of the International Crisis Group’s West Africa project, in a recent paper.

Mr. Gbagbo’s control over fiercely loyal elite units like the Republican Guard, a force of about 1,000 to 1,500 soldiers that has been central in the current wave of repression against opponents, would make him a tough match militarily.

“I really have trouble seeing how this would work,” Mr. Yabi said in an interview from Dakar, Senegal, on Wednesday. “There is no precedent.”

The Western diplomat in Abuja, who has been following the Ecowas deliberations closely, said: “The Ecowas standby force is something that exists only on paper. They would not be able to survive any kind of fight with Gbagbo’s forces.”

And then there is the question of stomach for the fight. “Ecowas has no desire for an offensive military operation,” Mr. Yabi said Wednesday.

Gates Warns of North Korea Missile Threat to U.S.

BEIJING — US Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned Tuesday that North Korea was within five years of being able to strike the continental United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile, and said that, combined with its expanding nuclear program, the country “is becoming a direct threat to the United States.”

Mr. Gates is a former director of the C.I.A., and his statement, officials said, reflected both a new assessment by American intelligence officials and his own concern that Washington had consistently underestimated the pace at which the North was developing nuclear and missile technologies.

It is unclear how recent the new assessment may be, but Mr. Gates’ remarks, made just an hour after he met with Hu Jintao, China’s president, may have been partly intended to convince China that the Obama administration no longer regards the North as a concern only in the region. The administration has increasingly put pressure on China to try to persuade North Korea, a longtime China ally, to give up its nuclear weapons program.

“The Chinese are always talking about their ‘core interests’ and threats they may have to respond to,” said one American official deeply involved in North Korea strategy. “They needed to hear that we have a few, too.”

In comments to reporters during a visit to Beijing, Mr. Gates said he was worried that within a relatively short time frame North Korea would simultaneously continue to develop nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. That combination, he said, had increased the need for pressure on North Korea, particularly if there is another provocation on South Korea by the North like the deadly shelling of a South Korean island in November.

“We consider this a situation of real concern, and we think there is some urgency in proceeding down the track of negotiations,” Mr. Gates said.

Mr. Gates said he nonetheless expected North Korea’s ability to be limited. “I don’t think it’s an immediate threat,” he said.

But his remarks were the first to put a time frame on when the North, which has conducted two nuclear tests, including one that fizzled, might be able to launch a nuclear-capable missile that could cross the Pacific. That has been a much-debated point for more than a decade, and the subject of a lengthy study on missile threats conducted by Donald H. Rumsfeld before he became President George W. Bush’s first defense secretary.

Mr. Gates made his comments to reporters on the same day that China, in a show of force for the United States, apparently conducted the first test flight of its new stealth fighter jet. The 15-minute flight occurred just hours before Mr. Gates met with President Hu to talk about improving relations between the Chinese and American militaries and ways to reduce tensions during a nascent arms buildup between the two countries.

Mr. Gates’s new assessment on North Korea is a significant shift for the Obama administration, which until now has viewed the North first and foremost as a proliferation threat, fearing that it might sell its existing missiles and nuclear devices to other countries, like Iran. North Korea has a long history of missile trade with Iran, Syria and Pakistan, among other nations, and is believed to have provided the technology for Syria to build a reactor. The reactor was destroyed in a 2007 air raid by Israel.

But Mr. Gates changed that emphasis, by focusing on the North’s capability to aim its small arsenal at the United States. Already there is an antimissile unit based at Fort Greely, Alaska, armed with interceptor missiles designed to stop a small attack, presumably by North Korea, before it hits the United States.

Implicit in Mr. Gates’s five-year assessment was the possibility that the North could soon solve one of its biggest technological hurdles: manufacturing a warhead small enough to fit atop a missile. Exploding a nuclear device underground, which North Korea did in 2006 and again in 2009, is comparatively simple. Manufacturing a warhead that is light, small and reliable is a far more complex art.

Nuclear inspectors who were inside North Korea periodically until 2009 have never publicly reported seeing work done on a warhead. But it is unlikely that they would be shown such efforts, even though the North quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty eight years ago.

It is unclear whether the North obtained designs for a warhead from another desperately poor country — possibly Pakistan, which sold uranium enrichment equipment to the North. Designing such a warhead from scratch is difficult, as Iran has learned.

Predicting missile capabilities is notoriously difficult. Documents released last year by WikiLeaks, the antisecrecy organization, revealed sharp disagreements between American and Russian experts on Iran’s missile technology.

Tunisia’s Interior Minister Fired

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — Tunisia's prime minister said Wednesday that the interior minister has been fired after protest violence that has killed at least 23 people and left the country's leadership struggling to keep the country under control.

Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi also announced that most prisoners arrested during nearly a month of riots are being freed. He said the release did not apply to those whose guilt has been proven, without elaborating.

The prime minister announced the appointment of a new interior minister, Ahmed Friaa.

Despair over Tunisia's soaring unemployment and corruption has fueled the protests, which pose the most significant challenge yet to President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The 74-year-old leader grabbed power 23 years ago in a bloodless coup.

The government has said 23 people have died in the protests around the country during which police repeatedly shot at demonstrators setting fire to buildings and stoning police.

Unions and witnesses say at least 46 have died in the unrest.

Social networks like Facebook have helped spread word of the protests in a country where the media are tightly controlled and little dissent is allowed.

The protests began in towns in the center of the country, far from the Mediterranean beaches popular with European tourists. But they have been spreading, and riots were reported late Tuesday in the Ettadhamoun neighborhood five kilometers (three miles) west of Tunis — the first time the violence has reached so near the capital.

Hezbollah and its allies threatened to withdraw from Lebanon’s government

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Hezbollah and its allies threatened to withdraw from Lebanon’s government on Wednesday, a move that would force it to dissolve and deepen a crisis over a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of a former prime minister.

The threat returned Lebanon to familiar terrain, where Hezbollah and its foes have wrestled over the direction of the small Mediterranean country since Rafik Hariri was killed in a bombing along Beirut’s seafront in 2005. Twenty-two other people died in the attack. Since then, the tribunal has investigated his death and is now widely expected to indict members of Hezbollah, the country’s powerful Shiite Muslim movement.

Hezbollah has denied involvement and denounced the tribunal as an “Israeli project.” It has urged his son, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, to reject its findings. Mr. Hariri, who was in Washington on Wednesday to meet President Obama, has so far resisted the pressure.

A withdrawal by Hezbollah’s ministers and their allies from the government would mark the worst crisis in Lebanon since 2008, when an agreement reached in Qatar achieved a truce to end sectarian clashes that killed 81 people and brought Lebanon to the brink of a renewal of its 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990.

“We were committed but they were not,” said Ammar Houri, a lawmaker with Mr. Hariri’s bloc. He added that Mr. Hariri’s allies were meeting to decide the next step.

There was a sense of inevitability to the resignation threat. For months, Hezbollah has warned that it would not stand by as its members were accused of involvement in the assassination of Mr. Hariri’s father. Though it is technically part of the opposition, Hezbollah joined a unity government formed after elections in June 2009. It has emerged as the single most powerful force in the country, aided by its alliance with a powerful Christian general and the fracturing of its foes.

The decision to resign came after the collapse of talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria aimed at easing the political tension. The two countries have backed rival camps in Lebanon since 2005 and their initiative was seen across the political spectrum as the best chance to end the stalemate. But Tuesday night, Michel Aoun, a former general and Hezbollah’s Christian ally, announced the two sides were unable to reach an agreement.

“The initiative has ended with no result,” he said.

A government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that 11 ministers of the 30-member cabinet would resign on Wednesday, forcing the government to dissolve. He said the ministers would blame their resignation on the cabinet’s refusal to convene an emergency session to take a position on the international court.

The prospect of the government’s collapse sent a wave of anxiety through Lebanon, which has seen only brief periods of calm since Mr. Hariri’s killing and has often found itself perched between the competing agendas of Hezbollah allies _ Iran and Syria — and Mr. Hariri’s supporters, in particular the United States and Saudi Arabia.

“The Saudi-Syrian initiative was an attempt to prevent strife in the country,” said Walid Sukkariyeh, a lawmaker allied with Hezbollah’s bloc in Parliament.

A leading opposition newspaper, Al Akhbar, underlined the sense of unease with an editorial headlined, “The beginning of the unknown.”

Ivory Coast Forces Crack Down on Opposition



NEW YORK TIMES


ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — The shouts came from the end of the dusty road: “They’re coming, they’re coming!”

Young men broke into a run, waving their arms in warning. Bursts of automatic gunfire crackled in the humid air behind them. In a flash, the wide, pitted road — crowded a moment before with angry residents — emptied. The inhabitants, all too accustomed to raids, had quickly scattered.

For the next 45 minutes, the neighborhood was raked by the pop-popping of gunfire and the sounds of explosions, delivered by the security forces of Laurent Gbagbo, the strongman who refuses to give up power despite losing a presidential election late last year. By the end of the assault, several people had been killed. Spent shells and trails of blood streaked the streets.

All the while, the United Nations, which has nearly ten thousand troops here, was nowhere to be seen. Though top United Nations officials have recently pledged to enforce their mandate in Ivory Coast robustly, promising to run roadblocks or other obstructions to protect civilians here, no peacekeepers arrived, much to the anger of residents.

“We sent a patrol there this morning; they were blocked,” said a United Nation’s military spokesman here, Lt. Col. Rais Shakib. “They blocked us completely,” he repeated, referring to the pro-Gbagbo forces.

So the shooting continued, uninterrupted. These muscled raiding parties — or “death squads,” as opposition officials call them — have been widely condemned by international officials, who warn of prosecutions and other consequences for attacks on civilians. But after a brief lull in recent weeks, the deadly raids appear to be back.

Alassane Ouattara, the man recognized as the winner of the election by the United Nations, the African Union and most governments around the world, calls the tactic a calculated bid to induce terror in the civilian strongholds of his supporters, helping suppress opposition to Mr. Gbagbo’s extended stay in office.

A Gbagbo government spokesman, Alain Toussaint, said the government forces had a legitimate mission. “The security forces received information that there were numerous armed persons in the neighborhood,” he said. “They proceeded there to conduct a security operation.”

Asked if any weapons had been found, he said “certainly,” adding that two of the government’s own police officers had been killed in the operation.

But of the scores of residents who scattered as the security forces swept in, only one appeared to be armed. Residents also spoke of repeatedly calling a United Nations emergency hot line for help, and getting no answer.

Colonel Shakib insisted that “the mission is always the same, to protect civilians.” But he also seemed to deflect some of the responsibility, saying Ivory Coast’s “security forces always have the first line of responsibility against wrongdoers” — a seeming non sequitur considering that the security forces were the ones to open fire on the neighborhood crowd.

Incensed that the United Nations — like other intergovernmental bodies — has called on him to step down, Mr. Gbagbo demanded that its forces leave the country. The United Nations refused, but its ability to operate has been severely hampered at times.

Still, United Nations officials have said they will not be deterred, and late last month the under secretary general for peacekeeping, Alain Le Roy, was quoted as saying, “We will ensure firmly, if someone obstructs us, that we cross through roadblocks because it is inadmissible that anybody prevent us from protecting civilians.”

On Tuesday at the United Nations, the secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, asked the Security Council to authorize an additional 2,000 military personnel for the peacekeeping forces, as well as three attack helicopters and a military hospital, because of the deteriorating situation. He cited “direct threats from regular and irregular forces loyal to former President Gbagbo.”

By late Wednesday morning, the raid in the opposition neighborhood here, known as Abobo, was ending. At regular intervals, automatic weapons shattered the stillness. Then there was a pause, and then the firing would start up again as residents hit the ground or pulled curious heads hastily back indoors.

Finally, the word sounded: the security forces appeared to be leaving. It was safe to come out again.

Residents said five people had been killed. The low concrete-block buildings of Abobo were pockmarked with bullet holes. Car windshields were shattered. Tank tracks were visible in the dust. Residents pointed with caution to an unexploded grenade still lying in the dirt street.

Six weeks ago, shortly after Mr. Gbagbo made it clear he did not intend to give up power, there were raids almost nightly in the pro-Ouattara neighborhoods in which the candidate’s supporters were shot, killed or kidnapped, residents say. The United Nations spoke of “massive violations” of human rights, including extrajudicial killings.

In other periods of violence here, earlier in the decade, Mr. Gbagbo’s government was also connected to the use of death squads, notably in a secret United Nations report that was subsequently suppressed by the world body, apparently for the sake of preserving a peace process.

In the last few weeks, as now stalemated diplomatic efforts got under way, there was a lull in the neighborhood attacks. But Wednesday’s operation appeared to signal a reprise.

“We were sleeping soundly, at around 2 a.m.,” said Ambroise Koné, a doctor who treated some of the wounded. Then a guardian, appointed to watch over barricades residents had erected, sounded the alert: The men in uniform had arrived.

“They fired on anything that moved,” Dr. Koné said.

Some of the attackers wore the uniforms of Mr. Gbagbo’s defense and security forces, residents said, while others were hooded and spoke in English, suggesting the possible presence of foreign mercenaries.

An army helicopter circled overhead, he and others said, dropping flares to indicate to the soldiers where young men were gathered. Residents spoke of being helpless in the face of what they described as an unprovoked attack on unarmed civilians by well-armed soldiers.

“Our neighborhood was invaded,” said Abdoulaye Bakayoko. “They attacked us with heavy weapons. They went inside the courtyards, and took people away. We are defenseless,” Mr. Bakayoko said.

Dr. Koné said, “We are appealing for help, to anybody.”

Ivory Coast Taking `All Necessary Measures' to Avoid $2.3 Billion Default

Ivory Coast’s Finance and Economy Ministry is “taking all necessary measures” to avoid defaulting on its $2.3 billion of bonds, according to a statement sent to bondholders. Prices for the debt jumped the most on record.

“The republic is in the process of taking all necessary measures so that the interest payment will be made before the expiration of the 30-day grace period,” according to the statement carrying Finance and Economy Minister Desire Dallo’s signature and dated yesterday. The letter is genuine, a Finance Ministry official said in an interview, declining to be identified because of ministry policy.

President Laurent Gbagbo’s administration will today discuss the payment of the coupon, Ahoua Don Mello, an adviser to Gbagbo, said in an interview from Abidjan, the commercial capital.

A political standoff over the disputed results of the Nov. 28 election between Gbagbo and his rival, Alassane Ouattara, sent yields on the West African country’s 2032 bonds to a record high of 17 percent earlier today.

The bonds jumped the most since being issued in April, gaining as much as 11 percent and trading 7.6 percent higher at 40.750 cents on the dollar as of 1:47 p.m. in Abidjan, according to generic prices on Bloomberg. The yield on the 2.5 percent bonds due December 2032 fell 142 basis points to 15.33 percent.

Caution

“Whilst no doubt it is a positive signal, we can only guess if they will be sincere in their efforts to rectify the situation,” said Phillip Blackwood, head of emerging markets at Sydbank A/S, Denmark’s fourth-largest bank, which received the statement at 7.30 a.m. London time. “If people were that confident they would pay on time then we would be trading with a 50 handle not a 40 handle.”

The world’s biggest cocoa-producing nation was due to pay $29 million in interest on Dec. 31 and has a 30-day grace period from that date. “In the light of the difficulties experienced by the country, the Republic of Cote d’Ivoire has not yet been able to make payment of the coupon,” according to the statement sent to bondholders.

“It’s a good sign, but we have to be a little bit cautious because in principle they are cut off from the Ivorian accounts with the central bank, so it’s hard to see how they will make the payments in practical terms,” Samir Gadio, a London-based emerging-market strategist at Standard Bank Plc, said in a telephone interview today.

Access to Funds

The Central Bank of West African States recognized Ouattara as Ivory Coast’s president last month, giving him control over state reserves previously governed by Gbagbo. Ouattara, 69, recognized by the United Nations, the U.S. and African leaders as victor of the election, is a former deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund.

“So far, Desire Dallo, as the minister of finance, does not have any other option other than taking into consideration the commitments taken in the past,” Gbagbo adviser Don Mello said. “These commitments can’t be modified as long as a new budget has not been voted on.”

The Ivory Coast defaulted on its Brady bonds in 2000 after it failed to meet a $10 million principal payment deadline. The nation issued new Eurobonds at a yield of 10.181 percent in April last year to replace the earlier debt.

Political Will

“With Ivory Coast the issue was never solvency, or perhaps even liquidity, but political willingness to pay by the incumbent Gbagbo regime,” Timothy Ash, head of emerging-market strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in an e-mail today. “The delay had more to do with the incumbent president trying to heap more pressure on the international community to reach a deal in the standoff with the opposition.”

The United Nations estimates as many as 210 people have been killed in violence since the election. In the past three weeks, about 16,000 people have fled villages in the west of the country, where the political crisis has exacerbated ethnic tensions, according to the Humanitarian Country Team, a group of non-governmental and UN organizations.

Ouattara said he would consider a “wide composite cabinet” including members of Gbagbo’s party, Youssoufou Bamba, the country’s envoy to the UN, said yesterday in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp.’s Hardtalk program. The army, which supports Gbagbo, has blockaded streets around the Golf Hotel in Abidjan, where Ouattara has established his administration.

Military Option

Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the African Union’s envoy, will return to Ivory Coast this week in a second effort to find a resolution to the conflict, according to an e-mail from his Nairobi-based office yesterday. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo made an unannounced visit to the country on Jan. 8 to mediate.

Ouattara refused to enter talks with Gbagbo last week, telling the BBC that a military intervention led by the Economic Community of West African States would come “sooner than you think.” Ghana said Jan. 7 it wouldn’t contribute troops to a mission in the country.

“I do not think this military option is going to bring peace in Cote d’Ivoire,” Ghanaian President John Atta Mills told reporters in the capital, Accra. “I don’t want to be saddled with problems we cannot solve. We have our own internal problems.”

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Policeman shoots Christian dead in southern Egypt


CAIRO – An off-duty policeman boarded a train and opened fire on Tuesday, killing a 71-year-old Christian man and wounding five Christians, mostly women, the Interior Ministry said in a statement, sparking new demonstrations in southern Egypt.

There are fears the attack could ignite a new wave of Christian protests by a community still traumatized by a New Year's suicide attack on a church that killed at least 21 worshippers as they were leaving Mass.

Soon after the attack, hundreds of angry Copts gathered outside the hospital where the wounded were being treated in the central Egyptian province of Minya and pelted the police with stones.

No motive was immediately known for the shooting which came less than two weeks after the suicide bomber blew himself up outside the church in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, sparking three days of fierce riots by Christians.

The ministry statement identified the policeman as Amer Ashour Abdel-Zaher, a 23-year-old Muslim, and said he boarded the Cairo-bound train at the town of Samalout in Minya province and opened fire on the passengers with a handgun.

It was not immediately clear if he was aware his victims were all Christian, however Christian women, who made up four of the five wounded, stand out in the conservative south since they would probably not be wearing headscarves as most Muslim women do.

The statement added that Abdel-Zaher, who was not wearing a uniform, was on his way to work at a town near Samalout. Police arrested him at his nearby home after he fled the scene and he was being questioned, according to the ministry statement.

The train originated in Assiut which, like Samalout, is home to a substantial Christian community.

Shooting attacks against Christians occasionally take place in Egypt's impoverished south, usually over commercial disputes, church building or allegations of cross-sectarian relationships.

In January 2010, gunmen opened fire on worshippers leaving a Coptic Christmas Eve church service in southern Egypt, killing six Christians and a Muslim guard.

Many Christians charge that the authorities are not doing enough to protect them and in fact allege some members of the security services turn a blind eye to anti-Christian incidents.

The attack comes as Egypt was bristling at international expressions of concern over the safety of its Christian population and recalled its ambassador to the Vatican following comments by Pope Benedict XVI.

In a speech Monday, Benedict cited recent attacks on Christians in Egypt, Iraq and Nigeria, and said governments must take effective measures to protect religious minorities.

Hossam Zaki, Egypt's Foreign Ministry spokesman, described Benedict's remarks as "unacceptable" and charged him with interfering in the country's internal affairs.

"Egypt will not allow non-Egyptians to interfere in its internal affairs under any pretext," he said.

Sheik Ahmed el-Tayyib, the imam of the Al-Azhar, the premier institute of Islamic learning in the Sunni Muslim world, also blasted the Pope's remarks.

"Protection of Christians is an internal affair and should be carried out by the governments as they (the Christians) are their citizens like other citizens," he said in a statement.

President Hosni Mubarak has repeatedly said that the government will do its utmost to protect Egypt's Christians and has accused foreign groups of being behind the New Year's church attack.

The New Year's suicide attack on the church reopened long festering wounds in a Christian community that says its members feel like second class citizens in their own country due to widespread discrimination.

Coptic Christians demonstrated around the country, including Assiut, in the aftermath of the bombing and called for better protection and equal rights.

Christians make up about 10 percent of Egypt's nearly 80 million people

Iran rounds up Christians in crackdown

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Iran has arrested about 70 Christians since Christmas in a crackdown that demonstrates the limits of religious tolerance by Islamic leaders who often boast they provide room for other faiths.

The latest raids have targeted grass-roots Christian groups Iran describes as "hard-liners" who pose a threat to the Islamic state. Authorities increasingly view them with suspicions that range from trying to convert Muslims to being possible footholds for foreign influence.

Christian activists claim their Iranian brethren are being persecuted simply for worshipping outside officially sanctioned mainstream churches.

Caught in the middle is the small community of Iranian Christians who get together for prayer and Bible readings in private residences and out of sight of authorities. They are part of a wider "house church" movement that has taken root in other places with tight controls on Christian activities such as China and Indonesia.

Iran's constitution gives protected status to Christians, Jews and Zoroastrians, but many religious minorities sense growing pressures from the Islamic state as hard-edged forces such as the powerful Revolutionary Guard exert more influence. There are few social barriers separating Muslims and Iran's religious minorities such as separate neighborhoods or universities. But they are effectively blocked from high government and military posts.

Iran has claimed as a point of pride that it makes space for other religions. It reserves parliament seats for Jewish and Christian lawmakers and permits churches — Roman Catholic, Armenian Orthodox and others — as well as synagogues and Zoroastrian temples that are under sporadic watch by authorities. Religious celebrations are allowed, but no political messages or overtones are tolerated.

In past years, authorities have staged arrests on Christians and other religious minorities, but the latest sweeps appears to be among the biggest and most coordinated.

In the West, the followers are drawn to house churches because of the intimate sense of religious fellowship and as an alternative to established denominations. In places such as Iran, however, there also is the effort to avoid monitoring of sanctioned churches from Islamic authorities — who have kept closer watch on religious minorities since the chaos after hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed election in 2009.

Groups monitoring Christian affairs in the Islamic world say Iranian authorities see the unregulated Christian gatherings as both a potential breeding ground for political opposition and suspect they may try to convert Muslim in violation of Iran's strict apostasy laws — which are common throughout the Muslim world and have at times fed extremist violence against Christians and others.

Tehran Governor Morteza Tamadon described the Christians as "hard-line" missionaries who have "inserted themselves into Islam like a parasite," according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. He also suggested that the Christians could have links to Britain — an accusation within Iran that refers to political opposition groups Tehran claims are backed by the West.

The crackdown by Iran resonates forcefully across the Middle East at a time when other Christian communities feel under siege following deadly attacks against churches in Egypt and Iraq — bloodshed that was noted Monday by Pope Benedict XVI in an appeal for protection of religious minorities.

The suicide blast in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Alexandria on Jan. 1, which killed 21 Coptic Christian worshippers, followed threats by al-Qaida in Iraq over claims that Coptic leaders forced two women who converted to Islam to return to Christianity — allegations that church leaders deny.

"It's the nature of the house churches that worries Iran. It's all about possible converts," said Fleur Brading, a researcher for Middle East and North Africa at Christian Solidarity Worldwide, a British-based group the follows Christian rights issues around the world. "It's a very specific and pinpoint strike by Iran."

Iran's religious minorities represent about 2 percent of the population and include communities with deep connections to their faiths. Iran's ethnic Armenian minority dates back to early Christianity, and the Jewish celebration of Purim is built around the story of the Persian-born Esther.

Even Iran's Islamic Revolution could not stamp out the influence of the pre-Muslim Zoroastrian faith, including its new year's holiday Norooz in March.

The wave of arrests began Christmas morning and since then, opposition websites have reported 70 Christians arrested, including those regarded as pastors in the house church movement. Many were later released, but the reports say more than a dozen remain in detention and officials have hinted more raids are possible.

It's still unclear what charges could be brought against the jailed Christians. But allegations of trying to convert Muslims could bring a death sentence.

Brading, however, expects Iranian authorities could opt for political charges rather than religious-linked allegations to soften a possible international outcry. Iran is already struggling against a campaign opposing the death-by-stoning for an Iranian woman convicted of adultery as well as international pressure over its nuclear program.

"The use of the word missionaries instead of evangelicals is an intentional move by the government," she said. "As evangelicals, they are a group entitled to their faith. As missionaries, they are enemies of the state seeking to corrupt its people."

In recent months, some members of Iran's Armenian community also have been detained on unspecified allegations of working to undermine the state, the Iranian Christian News Agency reported. Iranian officials have not given details of the reported detentions.

On Friday, a U.S. watchdog group on religious tolerance expressed concern over the recent arrests.

"What's most troubling about this wave of detentions is the fact that Iran is continuing its recent trend of targeting evangelical Christians, which they've been doing for years, and also leaders from the recognized and protected Armenian Christian community," said Leonard Leo, chairman of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, an independent government advisory panel.

Iranian authorities have come down hard on religious groups seen as threats to Islam, including the Baha'is whose faith was founded in the 19th century by a Persian nobleman considered a prophet by his followers. Baha'is are not recognized as official religious minority in Iran's Constitution.

There are no accurate figures on the number of Christians in the "house church" movement or followers outside established denominations. But the manager of the Iranian Christian News Agency, Saman Kamvar, said authorities likely perceive some kind of challenge to the religious status quo and are "feeling insecure."

Kamvar attributes the stepped up raids against Christians to comments last month by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denouncing the growth of private house churches.

"This, in my opinion, was a green light to the other authorities to crack down on them," Kamvar said from Canada, where he now lives.

Youth Advised Against Get-Rich-Quick Attitude


Daily Graphic

Ghanaian youth have been urged to shun the get-rich quick attitude that has crept into the Ghanaian society and driven many of them into armed robbery and social ills like Internet fraud.

The First Lady, Mrs Ernestina Naadu Mills, gave the advice at the 20th anniversary celebration of the Global Evangelical Students and Associate Ministry (GESAM) in Accra on Sunday.

Quoting a Daily Graphic publication of December 2, 2010, she said: “It is sad to note that Ghana is ranked among the top 10 countries in the world where the crime popularly known as 419 is most prevalent.”

GESAM is an umbrella body for students of the Global Evangelical Church (GEC) and their associated ministries and currently boasts 2,300 members in 39 educational institutions.

The group has been at the forefront of evangelism in the church, winning souls in addition to leadership training programmes for its members.

The annual event, which was on the theme: “The role of the Christian intellectual in transforming the Nation”, serves as a platform to deliberate on issues affecting the students on their various campuses, their achievements and challenges and to plan the way forward for the ensuing year.

The First Lady, therefore, told the youth to strive to contribute to the ‘Better Ghana’ agenda in their own small way.

“To transform this nation, you must use your energy identify developmental problems in your communities and find ways to solve them.

This is the only way you can add value to all that you are studying in school,” the first lady stated.

She said it was high time the Christian youth rose to the challenge of leading by example, adding that “in Christ, you have been called to a life of integrity, honesty, humility, respect for the elderly and care for the environment.”

Mrs Mills, who donated GH¢5,000 towards the activities of the group, said churches in the country had a crucial role to play in the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015.

She said the MDGs were a call to help reduce poverty, ensure universal primary education, combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases and also sustain the environment.

Mrs Mills urged the media to realise the fact that the youth, who remain the future leaders of the country, were the most vulnerable consumers of negative programmes telecast daily.

She commended the GEC for its role, not only in advancing the welfare of its members but also contributing to the educational and health sectors of the country.

The Chaplain of GESAM, Rev. Dr Nyuieko Avotri, in a welcoming address, said the group achieved its present stature because some people had laid down their lives to support the positive nurturing of the youth so that they (the youth) would grow in the knowledge and fear of God.

Gunmen kill policeman in northern Nigeria church attack

KANO, Nigeria (AFP) – Gunmen opened fire on police guarding Christian worshippers at a church in northern Nigeria, killing one and wounding two others in the latest such attack in the region, police said Monday.

The Sunday night attack occurred in Maiduguri, where suspected members of an Islamist sect have carried out a series of killings in recent months, including Christmas Eve attacks on churches.

Police, however, could not say who was behind the shootings.

"Unknown gunmen arrived in a tinted car around 8:00 pm and opened fire on two policemen guarding the church," said police spokesman Lawal Abdullahi.

"A fire exchange took place for about 10 minutes between the policemen and the assailants. Worshippers were in the church praying at the time of the attack."

He said "a policeman was killed and two other people, including the church security guard, were seriously injured."

The gunmen fled, though arrests were made in connection with the attack, said Abdullahi.

Suspected members of an Islamist sect that launched an uprising last year have carried out a series of attacks in northern Nigeria in recent months.

The group claimed responsibility for attacks on three churches in Maiduguri on Christmas Eve that left six people dead.

Machete attack in central Nigeria leaves 13 dead

JOS, Nigeria – A community leader says men armed with rifles and machetes killed 13 people in an attack on a village in central Nigeria.

The Riyom local government chairman said Tuesday three homes were attacked in the Christian village of Kuru Station around midnight on Monday. Simon Mwaekwom says villagers told him the attackers included soldiers and that soldiers stationed nearby refused to help.

He says the attackers killed children and adults and burned down their houses. He says three people were injured.

The village sits south of Jos, the epicenter of religious violence in Nigeria's "middle belt," where dozens of ethnic groups vie for control of fertile lands. Politics, jobs and land often motivate violence that falls along religious lines.

UN peacekeepers flee Ivory Coast neighborhood


ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast – U.N. peacekeepers retreated from a neighborhood where security forces loyal to incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo had opened fire Tuesday, turning around at least nine U.N. vehicles after dozens of angry young men built a road blockade out of a table and sticks.

Peacekeepers patrolling the streets of Abidjan have come under growing threat as tensions escalate over the Nov. 28 election. One U.N. peacekeeper was wounded with a machete last month when a crowd in a pro-Gbagbo neighborhood attacked a convoy and set a U.N. vehicle on fire.

Gbagbo, who refuses to leave office despite international condemnation and a possible regional military ouster, has accused the U.N. of bias since it endorsed results from the electoral commission that declared Alassane Ouattara the winner.

Gbagbo maintains control of the country's military, and human rights groups accuse his security forces of abducting and killing hundreds of political opponents since the vote.

On Tuesday, military trucks descended upon a neighborhood known as PK 18 hours after residents there described killing two police officers who were conducting raids in the area. The district overwhelmingly voted for Gbagbo's rival in the election.

Marco Boubacar, head of the New Forces rebels who are allied to Ouattara, said people attacked the police officers with their bare hands.

"We were able to take down two men in uniform," he said.

The two deaths could not be independently confirmed, but other witnesses said they also had seen the police officers' bodies.

The area is not far from the site where Charles Ble Goude, the leader of a pro-Gbagbo youth group, is expected to hold a rally Tuesday afternoon. Some describe the hardline Young Patriots as an armed militia.

Goude, who was placed on a United Nations sanctions list in 2006 for his role in inciting violence, has been leading daily rallies, gathering thousands of pro-Gbagbo youth to warn that there will be no peace if Gbagbo is forced out.

"They shouldn't kid themselves and imagine that they can come and remove (Gbagbo) like some sort of orphan ... Because in every Ivorian there is a Gbagbo," Goude told The Associated Press on Monday. "Do they want to govern an Ivory Coast cemetery?"

Meanwhile Tuesday, the U.N. refugee agency said 25,000 Ivorian civilians have now fled to neighboring Liberia since the disputed election. A spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said 600 more refugees are arriving in Liberia daily.

Adrian Edwards told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday that the United Nations is setting up a refugee camp for 18,000 people in the eastern Liberian town of Bahn.

Strains emerge between Netanyahu, foreign minister


JERUSALEM – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rebuked his combative foreign minister on Tuesday for attacking members of the Israeli leader's Likud party, pointing to growing strains within Israel's coalition government.

In a rambling press conference, Avigdor Lieberman criticized Likud leaders for opposing an initiative to investigate Israeli human rights groups critical of the government. He said it was a "strange spectacle" to see Likud members protecting groups that he described as "terrorist collaborators."

Netanyahu's office said the prime minister "utterly rejects" the comments, reminding Lieberman that Likud is a "democratic and pluralistic party and not a dictatorship of one opinion."

Lieberman, who immigrated to Israel from the former Soviet Union, leads the Yisrael Beitenu party, which made strong gains in 2009 elections with a nationalist message that, among other things, questioned the loyalty of Israel's Arab minority.

Lieberman more recently has turned his attention to Israeli human rights groups, pushing parliament to launch an inquiry into funding sources of organizations deemed hostile to Israel. In particular, he is targeting groups that have helped seek prosecution of Israeli soldiers for alleged war crimes during battles against Palestinian militants.

Critics say Lieberman's proposal would stifle dissent and limit democracy. Several senior Likud members reject the move, saying it is not the parliament's job to impede public debate.

Tuesday's comments were not the first time Netanyahu has had to rein in his cantankerous foreign minister.

Lieberman has embarrassed Netanyahu with his repeated skepticism on the chances of reaching peace, including a high-profile speech at the United Nations General Assembly last September in which he contradicted Netanyahu's stated goal of reaching a final peace deal in the coming year.

Lieberman has also proved a distraction with his repeated attacks on Arab lawmakers, and by pushing through a law that would require non-Jewish immigrants to take a loyalty oath before becoming citizens. That proposal was widely seen as racist and anti-Arab because it would not require Jewish immigrants to take the oath.

In other challenges facing the government, the centrist Labor Party last week threatened to pull out of the governing coalition within months if no significant progress was made in peace talks with Palestinians.

On Tuesday, Labor lawmaker Daniel Ben Simon said he was leaving the party and becoming an independent in parliament. He said the step was to protest Labor's continued presence in the coalition

Algeria and Tunisia: Protests Threaten Repressive Regimes

The new year has brought a wave of protests and violence against two U.S.-friendly authoritarian Arab regimes in North Africa. Riots in Algeria over rising food prices last weekend reportedly left five people dead and some 800 injured, while police arrested more than 1,000 people in their effort to crack down on protestors. At the same time, weeks of unrest and anger at high unemployment came to a head in neighboring Tunisia, with security forces killing at least 14 civilians protesting in a number of the country's poorer towns. Hundreds of others were hurt as police fired tear gas and live ammunition into crowds, prompting condemnation by the E.U. and human-rights groups.

A call from Tunisia's marginalized political opposition for a "cease-fire" fell on deaf ears. Instead, the regime on Jan. 10 ordered all schools and universities shut to thwart further student mobilization. Algeria, too, was eager to deny opponents platforms for protest, suspending all the country's professional soccer games to prevent fans congregating. (Watch TIME's video of desert refugees in Algeria awaiting recognition.)

For years, Tunisia has been one of the more stable countries in the region, with many citizens accepting their regime's authoritarianism in exchange for guarantees of greater prosperity. But economic decline there and continued hardship in Algeria have left both countries facing simmering resentment, particularly from younger people whose job prospects are grim. "The riots are a sign that young people in the region are losing hope," says Haim Malka, senior fellow at the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. "They are getting increasingly frustrated by the lack of opportunities and accountability in their societies."

Troubles in Tunisia began after Dec. 17, when Mohammed Bouazizi, an unemployed 26-year-old college graduate, poured gasoline over his body and set himself ablaze in a public square in the town of Sidi bou Zid. Bouazizi had allegedly been beaten and humiliated by police officers while trying to hawk vegetables without an adequate license. His self-immolation - Bouazizi died of his wounds on Jan. 5 - struck a nerve among Tunisians, some 14% of whom are unemployed. Demonstrations kicked off nationwide, involving students and labor unions, and even a lawyers' strike. Apart from a few conciliatory gestures, the government of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali reacted aggressively, arresting dissidents (including a popular 22-year-old rapper nicknamed "El General") and gunning down others, while doing its best to muzzle the press and civil society. The Committee to Protect Journalists alleges widespread censoring of the Internet and monitoring of all Tunisian-based Facebook accounts; in solidarity with the protesters, the global "hacktivist" group Anonymous, which had recently rallied behind WikiLeaks, managed to temporarily shut down a number of state-run Tunisian websites on Jan. 2. (Read "Tunisia: The Price of Prosperity.")

"Though the spark seems to have been economic issues, these are protests against political systems that are totally frozen," says Elliott Abrams, a fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations who was the deputy national security adviser handling the Middle East and North Africa in the Administration of President George W. Bush. "Nothing changes. There's little to no freedom of the press, and each election is an even worse charade than the other."

In Algeria, some three-quarters of the population is younger than 30. Few experienced the savage violence of a civil war between the government and Islamists in the 1990s that followed the military's cancellation of elections that the Islamists looked set to win, let alone the storied armed struggle that won independence from France in 1962. Yet, these experiences are still invoked to burnish the credentials of the military-backed regime of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. In the wake of the riots, the Algerian government attempted to ease the situation with the promise of food subsidies and tax relief. But those measures may be thin paper over the widening cracks emerging in Algerian society. Despite the country's abundance of natural-gas wealth, millions of Algerians remain in poverty, with large slums surrounding the capital city, Algiers. According to a report by Dubai-based Al Arabiya TV, some young protestors flung animal bones at government buildings in the major city of Oran, "because," said one, "[the government] has left nothing but bones for us." (Read about the kidnapping threat to foreigners in North Africa.)

Whereas the problem in Algeria is "primarily institutional," argues Abrams, "Tunisia is a more old-fashioned dictatorship, where efforts revolve around keeping the first family in power." President Ben Ali is only the second ruler the former French colony has had since its independence in 1956, and he has been at the helm for 23 years. A secret U.S. diplomatic cable from 2008, released by WikiLeaks, brands Ben Ali's extended family a "quasi mafia" at "the nexus of Tunisian corruption." Others cables from the American embassy in Tunis quote U.S. officials reporting on the frustrations felt by many locals at the excesses of "the Family" and their seeming indifference to the plight of ordinary Tunisians. A 2009 cable details dinner at the lavish home of Ben Ali's son-in-law, Sakher El Materi: Roman artifacts abound while guests dine on fruit, cakes and frozen yogurt freshly flown in on a private jet from the southern French town of St. Tropez. A large tiger named Pasha roams the garden. (Comment on this story.)

In Tunisia, "you've got substantially high per capita income and a high literacy rate," says Abrams. "You do have a society there that could be democratic if only the ruling government could get out of the way." But the U.S. has been slow to push for democratic change in the region, not least because the authoritarian governments of Algeria and Tunisia are allies in the fight against Islamist terrorism. But the social instability their policies have provoked can actually work to the advantage of regional extremists. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, on a visit to the Gulf states this week, plans to call publicly for political reform in the Arab world. But that may not offer much help or comfort to the civil society in Tunisia and Algeria, set against phalanxes of security personnel and the ubiquitous secret police.
TIME MAGAZINE

U.S. sees North Korea becoming direct threat, eyes ICBMs


BEIJING (Reuters) – North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States and could develop an inter-continental ballistic missile within five years, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Tuesday.

Gates detailed the new U.S. assessment of Pyongyang's capabilities during a visit to Beijing, where he praised Chinese efforts to reduce tensions on the Korean peninsula but also stressed the urgency to rein in the reclusive state.

China is North Korea's top diplomatic and economic backer and Gates said it was "self-evident" that North Korea would likely come up in talks between Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington next week.

[ For complete coverage of politics and policy, go to Yahoo! Politics ]


"With the North Koreans' continuing development of nuclear weapons and their development of inter-continental ballistic missiles, North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States," Gates told reporters after talks with Hu.

Gates said he did not believe North Korea was an immediate threat, but added it was also not a "five-year threat."

"I think that North Korea will have developed an inter-continental ballistic missile within that time -- not that they will have huge numbers or anything like that," Gates said. "But they will have, I believe they will have a very limited capability."

North Korea has more than 800 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 missiles of various ranges. It has sold missiles and technology overseas, with Iran a top buyer.

Pyongyang's arsenal already includes intermediate-range missiles that can hit targets at up to 3,000 km (1,860 miles) away, the Yonhap news agency quoted a South Korean official as saying last year. Those missiles could hit all of Japan and put U.S. military bases in Guam at risk.

An inter-continental ballistic missile, or ICBM, could potentially threaten the continental United States.

Adding to U.S. concerns, the North also revealed late last year it had made considerable progress in its uranium enrichment programme, potentially giving it a second route to make a nuclear bomb.

TALKS WITH THE NORTH?

The new U.S. concerns come amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula after a deadly attack on a South Korean island and the sinking of a South Korean warship last year.

Gates suggested Seoul's patience with the North had run out, saying: "If there is another provocation, there will be pressure on the South Korean government to react".

"We consider this a situation of real concern and we think there is some urgency to proceeding down the track of negotiations and engagement," Gates said, while again conditioning any talks on a show of North Korean sincerity.

After threatening the South with nuclear weapons last month, the North has made almost daily offers since the start of the year to return to the negotiating table.

Seoul, which has called the offers "propaganda", on Monday responded to an official request for talks from the North with a counter offer for a South-North Korean government meeting to confirm the North's sincerity.

Gates suggested North Korea could announce a moratorium on missile and nuclear testing.

"There are several areas where they could take concrete actions," said Gates, who will travel to Japan and South Korea later this week.

The North responded on Tuesday by declaring the only way for the two Koreas to work out their differences was to sit down first at a table to test each other's resolve to iron out differences through talks.

"Whether we are sincere or not will be proven when we sit together face-to-face," Minju Joson, a publication of the North's cabinet, said in an editorial carried by the official Korean Central News Agency